Johnson survives ouster attempt but faces difficult governing dynamic moving forward

June 2024 · 4 minute read

House Speaker Mike Johnson survived a bid to remove him from his leadership role on Wednesday but is facing a difficult governing and political dynamic moving forward with a group of Republicans frustrated with his guidance of the House and a tight majority that isn’t guaranteed Democratic votes if there is another effort to oust him.

The move to oust Johnson from the speakership was the second attempt to remove a speaker during this Congress, which was a rarity prior to the ouster of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy last fall. It was easily batted down with a large majority of Democrats voting to dismiss the effort with a final tally of 359-to-43.

Wednesday’s vote came after weeks of threats from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., who also tried to push Johnson into agreeing to policy demands to stave off the ouster effort. Greene has been incensed over Johnson’s reliance on Democratic votes to get must-pass legislation through the chamber instead of relying on what has become a one-vote majority that has been unable to come to agreements to pass critical legislation with a chance of becoming law.

After the vote, Johnson said he hoped it was the end of “personality politics.”

“I appreciate the show of confidence from my colleagues to defeat this misguided effort,” Johnson said after Wednesday’s vote. “As I’ve said from the beginning and I’ve made clear here every day, I intend to do my job. I intend to do what I believe to be the right thing, which is what I was elected to do, and I’ll let the chips fall where they may. In my view, that is leadership.”

Only 11 Republicans voted to allow the motion to move forward toward a vote, with Greene being greeted by boos on the House floor as most lawmakers wanted to avoid a messy process to pick another speaker in an election year. After McCarthy was vacated from the speakership, it took Republicans nearly a month to find a new speaker after multiple candidates were nominated and saw their speakership hopes fizzle out on the House floor.

There are no clear viable alternatives to Johnson at this point and lawmakers will soon be homed in on the 2024 election that will determine which party holds a majority in the next Congress. They also need to pass a handful of key bills and another budget in the coming months.

“The bulk of the Republicans or the Democrats aren’t really interested in another speaker fight over the next eight months. They've got some big issues they've got to deal with, but more and more the focus of Congress is going to be on the elections in November,” said David McLennan, a professor of political science and director of the Meredith Poll.

While Johnson survived the ouster effort, he is not in an easy situation to navigate moving forward. Democrats were willing to save him during this attempt, but that support may not continue if another motion to vacate, which only takes a single lawmaker to trigger, is offered closer to Election Day.

“Our decision to stop Marjorie Taylor Greene from plunging the House of Representatives and the country into further chaos is rooted in our commitment to solve problems for everyday Americans in a bipartisan manner,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Wednesday.

When asked about a future motion to vacate, Jeffries said he hadn’t thought about it.

Democrats have been able to avoid some GOP policies they oppose from becoming law or being added to must-pass legislation as their votes have been required to pass bills to keep the government open and avoid a shutdown. They also got to vote on a bill providing military aid to Ukraine, long a Democratic priority that was frozen in the House due to Republican opposition.

“What I think they're counting on is the Republican caucus is so chaotic that they can't put forward a conservative legislative agenda, so Democrats can play their cards, keep Johnson in power, get a few things that they like passed,” McLennan said. “They're in almost a no-lose situation with Johnson staying in power and constant infighting among Republicans.”

Another dynamic at play is whether former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee that holds tremendous sway over House politics, will continue to back Johnson as he did with Greene’s effort. He encouraged Republican lawmakers to vote against Greene’s motion, but also left the door open to installing a new person atop the conference in the future.

“If we show DISUNITY, which will be portrayed as CHAOS, it will negatively affect everything!” he wrote on his social media platform, adding that the party is “not in a position” to remove the speaker. “At some point, we may very well be, but this is not the time.”

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